The world\u2019s biggest divorce since the end of the colonial period will begin next week, and don\u2019t expect it to be amicable. UK prime minister Theresa May will file the required Article 50 statement to initiate \u201cBrexit\u201d on March 29th. The dissolution of ties to the European Union will take two years to adjudicate:<\/p>\n
Britain\u2019s government will begin the process of leaving the European Union on March 29, starting the clock on two years in which to complete the most important negotiation for a generation. \u2026<\/em><\/p>\n \u201cWe are on the threshold of the most important negotiation for this country for a generation,\u201d Brexit secretary David Davis said. \u201cThe government is clear in its aims: a deal that works for every nation and region of the UK and indeed for all of Europe \u2013 a new, positive partnership between the UK and our friends and allies in the European Union.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n Positive, eh? On the positivity over\/under \u2026 take the under:<\/p>\n Other member states will \u201crealize it\u2019s not worth leaving\u201d the European Union after they see the deal the UK gets, the European Commission President has warned.<\/em><\/p>\n The loss of Britain to the bloc, which celebrates its 60th anniversary next week, has created speculation that other states might decide to follow suit, something President Jean-Claude Juncker strongly disagreed with in an interview published on Sunday.<\/em><\/p>\n \u201cThey will all see from the UK\u2019s example that leaving the EU is a bad idea,\u201d Juncker told German newspaper Bild am Sonntag.<\/em><\/p>\n \u201cOn the contrary, the remaining member states will fall in love with each other again and renew their vows with the European Union.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n Juncker seems especially eager to make the Brexit an example pour encourager les autres. According to CNN, he also warned that the UK cannot expect to cling to the benefits of EU interaction without fully remaining in the union, saying that \u201chalf-memberships and cherry-picking aren\u2019t possible.\u201d Juncker and the rest of the EU\u2019s leadership have an incentive to make this as painful as possible to keep the rest of the EU in line, but Juncker and Germany have even more incentive. Germany can\u2019t afford to keep the EU afloat if the wealthier members leave, and so it\u2019s going to be open season on the UK. They have to make it so painful to leave that no one else will consider it.<\/p>\n Former PM John Major warned two weeks ago that the UK would not likely get what it wants out of Brexit, and that the effort would require \u201cstatesmanship\u201d rather than \u201ccheap rhetoric.\u201d Unfortunately, Major lamented, the mood was already \u201csour\u201d:<\/p>\n How expensive will it get for the Brits? According to CNN, the EU may demand as much as \u20ac60 billion in the divorce settlement just as an indemnification against member losses. The ongoing costs in economic damage will be difficult to predict until agreement is reached on the final terms. Clearly, though, Juncker has made it plain that he doesn\u2019t intend on discussing it as \u201cfriends,\u201d as Major hopes.<\/p>\n In the meantime, the UK has a lot of work on its hands at home. Parliament will have to repeal decades-old laws that bind their nation to the EU, and the BBC predicts it will leave them with little time to do much else:<\/p>\n Parliament might have to scrutinise up to 15 new bills to deliver Brexit, leaving little time for other business, the Institute for Government has said.<\/em><\/p>\n The IFG says legislation will be needed to establish new policies on areas such as customs and immigration.<\/em><\/p>\n The extra measures will place \u201ca huge burden\u201d on Parliament and government departments, the think tank says. \u2026<\/em><\/p>\n Dr Hannah White, IFG\u2019s director of research, said the government had finite resources to draft new legislation and Brexit bills would take a \u201cbig chunk\u201d out of its capacity to legislate in other areas.<\/em><\/p>\n \u201cIn the first session after the 2015 election the government passed 23 bills,\u201d she told BBC Radio 4\u2019s Today. \u201cSo that\u2019s roughly the capacity that there is in government to draft these bills and in Parliament, in terms of parliamentary time, to pass them.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n In other words, there won\u2019t be much time left for other projects on the Tory agenda. It might get even more complicated if Scotland decides to obstruct progress on Brexit, IFG warned, and they\u2019re likely to try. Like any other divorce, this one\u2019s likely to be all-encompassing \u2026 and bitter on both ends.<\/p>\n BY ED MORRISSEY<\/p>\n Source:\u00a0hotair.com<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"